Bitcoin clocked six-day highs above $9,000 over the weekend, but a long-term bull market revival may not be on the cards, yet.
Having clocked a high of $9,070.64 on Saturday, prices again fell back below $8,000 briefly on Sunday before climbing again. CoinDesks’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) was last seen at $8,772.
The cryptocurrency has appreciated by 9.70 percent in the last 24 hours, as per data source CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin (BTC) is also close to 40 percent above last week’s low of $5,947.40.
So has the cryptocurrency bottomed out?
To start with, the sharp recovery from lows below $6,000 does indicate a short-term bottom is in place. However, BTC is still down 39 percent on a year-to-date basis. Further, the series of lower highs as represented by the falling trendline is still intact.
While, BTC has a history of rallying to fresh record highs after the relative strength index (RSI) has bottomed out at, or below, 30.00 (oversold region), the daily chart throws some doubt on that pattern today.
The above chart (prices as per Bitfinex) shows:
Throughout the uptrend from Aug 2015 to Dec 2017, the RSI fell to (or below) 30.00 on four occasions (marked by circles). And, in March 2017, the RSI bottomed out just above 30.00. Each time, BTC went on to clock fresh record highs.
The RSI has never formed a double bottom or turned sideways around 30.00. It has always been a “v” shaped recovery for the RSI.
The situation today looks similar. The RSI has recovered sharply from below 30.00 and BTC is up close to 40 percent from lows below $6,000. So, going by the historical pattern, BTC should rise to fresh record highs above $20,000.
However, the weekly chart indicates it will be easier said than done.
Weekly chart
The above chart shows:
At no time were the bears strong enough to push the RSI below 53.00 (strong support marked by a horizontal line). Moreover, the 80.00–90.00 range has marked the tops, while the 53.00–55.00 support zone has marked all the pullbacks in the bull market (August 2015 to December 2017).
However, the support zone of 53.00–55.00 has been breached this time and, as of writing, the RSI is seen below 50.00 (bearish territory).
Further, the 5-week moving average (MA) and 10-week MA witnessed a bearish crossover in late January and are now sloping downwards in favor of the bears.
Hence, the historical pattern may not occur this time round. That said, BTC seems to have found a short-term bottom, as indicated by the sharp recovery from the lows around $6,000.
View
BTC could test the $10,000 mark in the short-run as the RSI on the 1-hour and 4-hour chart is rising and well short of the overbought region (above 70.00), but a rally to record highs (in line with the historical pattern) looks unlikely.
The cryptocurrency may find it hard to hold on to gains above $10,000, courtesy of the bearish setup on the weekly chart. Rejection at the downward sloping weekly 5-MA and 10-MA could trigger a fresh wave of selling.
On the downside, a daily close below $7,724.9 (Feb. 9 low) would add credence to bearish weekly chart and could yield a drop to $5,000.
There is little doubting why, in the run up to Bitcoin all time high of $20,000, people were entering the cryptocurrency market. There was a promise of massive growth, potentially huge returns on investment, and a story already told of missing out as an early adopter.
People thus flooded the market, entering for all the wrong reasons, really. However, this created a massive spike in interest and a massive spike in price. Things have changed somewhat now, with Bitcoin heading towards $6,000 rather than above $20,000, and this has caused a huge sell off as investors now flood out of the market. But what reasons remain today for people to buy Bitcoin?
Get in for the right reasons
The issue was, with this massive spike in interest, that people were throwing money at something they did not understand in the hopes of making a profit. It sounds familiar because it happened before.
The dotcom boom has predicated around similar happenings. People jumped on the bandwagon, not knowing why, and built a huge market on a flimsy base. Those who are not so technologically inclined may have shunned understanding Bitcoin as a new wave of technology, and used that as an excuse. But then still, as investors, they should at least be savvy with their assets.
Bitcoin is a bad asset
In comparison to stocks and bonds, Bitcoin does not hold much water as a good investment asset, especially when considering long-term capital appreciation. True, Bitcoin has increased its value substantially over time, but it lacks a few other facets.
In stocks, an investor stakes a claim in the company’s net assets, and as the value of the company rises over time, so does the equity. In bonds, individuals essentially loan the company money in return for an agreed upon stream of interest income.
Thus, both these options provide future profits and future income and tick the boxes of sound investments. Bitcoin cannot be counted in the same breath as stock and bonds. Having one Bitcoin today does not entitle you to more Bitcoins in the future, nor does it offer the promise of any future cash flow.
Look at the technology
But in any case Bitcoin shines as a technology. Those who are trying to separate Bitcoin and Blockchain are wrong in doing so, but their premise is right; Bitcoin should be heralded for its potential as a technology.
Its use as a decentralized system of money which liberates users from the tyranny and hegemony of the banking system allows for seamless cross-border transfers and disrupts the financial system – these are reasons to celebrate and back Bitcoin.
Hopefully this is a dotcom bubble pop
Bitcoin has been likened to the dotcom bubble burst a number of times, and there is probably merit in it. In the dotcom situation, a technology was being used as an investment opportunity as people rushed in to be a part of the bandwagon.
That foundation of uninformed get rich quick types in the dotcom boom caused the technology to be almost forgotten about as companies changed their names and did all they could to cash in, including buying with debt.
All of these signs have repeated themselves in Bitcoin, and perhaps it is the best thing for it. Those who got into the space for the wrong reasons have quickly gotten out of it. And those who remain, are true to the potential and vision it still has.
Should I buy Bitcoin today?
As old as the adage is, it is worth repeating and highlighting: ‘Don’t buy Bitcoin to become an overnight millionaire.’ The reason this needs to be said again is because it will end badly for the individual and for the currency.
If like the Internet and all its associated powers today, you believe Bitcoin can change the world, then it is worth buying into today – while it is cheap. If, you are out to make a quick buck, leave this space alone.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is hovering just above the $7,000 mark per coin as the digital currency market suffers one of its most widely covered and harshest sell-offs in recent history. In December, the bitcoin frenzy hit its peak with the cryptocurrency flying to record highs near the $20,000 mark. While investors may be extremely unsettled as bitcoin trades at less than half of its value of a month ago, one early crypto investor suggests that volatility is normal and that the market will stabilize this year after bitcoin regains its value. (See also: Crypto, Cannabis, FOMO Drive New Investor Inflow.)
“We’ve seen it go down 50% at a time. It’s quite a resilient currency/commodity/asset that just keeps going up afterwards,” said Ran Neu-Ner, host of CNBC’s “Cryptotrader.” “I think 2018 is the year where the mechanisms to allow retail consumers to get into cryptocurrencies start to open themselves up … The price will become more stable.”
Last week, Neu-Nur predicted bitcoin bottoming around $7,500, indicating that he couldn’t see it going much under that due the big uptake in crypto trading, particularly highlighting “a lot of retail money that has gone into bitcoin.” A day after his interview on CNBC, the investor “pinned a tweet” forecasting bitcoin to finish this year at $50,000.
As More Get Into Bitcoin, Volatility Will Decline
Neu-Nur made his bull case based on the idea that in 2018, “the mechanisms to allow retail consumers to get into cryptocurrencies start to open up.” For example, he noted that Robinhood, a popular online brokerage used primarily by Millennials, started offering free bitcoin trading last week. As it becomes easier for the retail investor to start trading bitcoin, Neu-Nur expects the price of the digital currency to stabilize. He attributes bitcoin’s large price swings to a market with “not enough buyers and not enough sellers.”
The investor also recommended buying ethereum, indicating that “the smartest people in the world are developing on ethereum.” While bitcoin has two use cases at max, either serving as a currency or a store of value, Neur-Nur said that ethereum is attractive as a platform for multiple uses, from hedging to betting and sports.
He sees bitcoin as more of a store of value than a currency, indicating that none of the blockchains are ready for the scale of real-world currency transactions. (See also: Over 1M Join Waitlist for Robinhood Crypto Trading.)
Investing in cryptocurrencies and other Initial Coin Offerings (“ICOs”) is highly risky and speculative, and this article is not a recommendation by Investopedia or the writer to invest in cryptocurrencies or other ICOs. Since each individual’s situation is unique, a qualified professional should always be consulted before making any financial decisions. Investopedia makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or timeliness of the information contained herein. As of the date this article was written, the author owns cryptocurrency.
The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,923, according to Coinbase data.
A number of critics have railed against cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, citing extreme price swings and worries of dubious activities associated with the crypto world.
Bitcoin’s value has dipped below $8,000 for the first time in 11 weeks in the midst of a broader cryptocurrency sell-off.
The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,882 on Friday, according to Coinbase data. The drop marks the first time it has fallen below the $8,000 level since November 24, according to CoinDesk, which tracks prices from digital currency exchanges Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Bitfinex. The price of bitcoin lifted to almost $8,800 later Friday morning.
Multiple virtual currencies have dropped significantly as regulators voiced concerns about them and worries grew over suggestions that the price of bitcoin has been propped up by popular exchange Bitfinex.
On Wednesday, Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley warned against criminal activity associated with cryptocurrencies, and said that India would “eliminate” the use of cryptocurrencies in “illegitimate activities.”
A number of critics have railed against cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, citing extreme price swings and worries of dubious activities associated with the crypto world, such as money laundering.
Notably, J. P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon called the world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, a “fraud,” and said that he thought it would eventually “blow up.”
Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway Chief Executive Warren Buffett told CNBC last month that cryptocurrencies were likely to “come to a bad ending.”
Cryptocurrencies are decentralized, virtual currencies that are not backed by governments. They are underpinned by distributed ledger networks called blockchains, which maintain a continuously growing log of transactions across a network of computers.
Bitfinex, Tether reportedly subpoenaed
The New York Times reported that an increasing number of cryptocurrency investors were concerned about the price of bitcoin other virtual assets being propped up by Bitfinex, one of the exchanges included in CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index.
Both Bitfinex and Tether, the digital currency backed by the former’s executives, have been surrounded in controversy following the report. Tether — which is pegged to the U.S. dollar — was down almost 1.9 percent on Friday.
Bloomberg reported separately that Bitfinex and Tether had been subpoenaed by U.S. regulators. Alhough Tether’s digital tokens are meant to be backed by U.S. dollars held in reserve, the company not yet proven so, the report said.
“The real question is whether Bitfinex has been keeping a 1-1 reserve,” Charles Hayter, chief executive of digital currency comparison service CryptoCompare, told CNBC by email.
Hayter pointed out a “strange” rush of investors into a digital coin called Digix, which claims to let cryptocurrency traders invest in gold — traditionally thought of as a safe haven commodity — via its blockchain network.
“The jury is still out and fear is gripping the markets with people preferring to step out and flight to safety rather than keep risk on,” Hayter said.
Hayter added in a phone interview that Friday’s downward activity was likely an “overreaction” to news in the cryptocurrency market, describing such slides in prices as “common.”
Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at social trading network eToro, said that neither regulatory signals or worries of price manipulation were a cause for “systemic change” in the cryptocurrency market.
“We’re coming up on support now at around $8,000, a level we’ve been watching over the last two weeks,” he told CNBC in an email. “A light break of that is a good sign but if the break is violent it could take us lower.”
Greenspan added: “Even if we go as low as $5000, it will still be double the prices that were traded in June and July of 2017.”
Bitcoin is back above $10,000, but the gains could be short-lived, the price charts indicate.
Having breached key support yesterday, prices on CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) fell to a two-week low of $9,627.89 at 01:14 UTC today. In the last few hours, bitcoin (BTC) has managed to regain some poise and moved back above $10,000. At time of writing, bitcoin was around the $10,300 mark.
The 15 percent drop from the weekend high of $11,942.25 signals a continuation of the series of lower highs on the price chart, suggesting the bears remain in control.
That said, the quick rebound from $9,627.89 to $10,000 adds credence to the argument that the cryptocurrency could be forming a base around $10,000.
However, the 4.9 percent rally from the intraday low of $9,627 looks like a technical correction amid a bigger downtrend. Further, a break below $9,780 could result in sharp losses.
Bitcoin chart
The above chart (prices as per Coinbase) shows:
BTC closed (as per UTC) yesterday below $10,313 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low-high), signaling another victory for the bears. However, they have failed at least four times in the last two weeks to keep the prices below the key Fibonacci level, thus establishing it as an important support level.
A falling channel marked by falling trendlines representing lower highs and lower lows.
Five-day moving average (MA) and 10-day MA are trending lower, indicating a bearish setup.
The 50-day MA has adopted bearish bias (is beginning to slope downwards).
Also, the bearish move below $10,313 witnessed yesterday looks strong.
4-hour chart
The ADX line bottomed out yesterday and rose sharply once prices fell below $10,313, indicating the bearish move is strong and prices will likely extend the decline.
Currently, the ADX line is at 29 and rising. The above 25 readings indicate the beginning of a trend. In BTC’ case, it means the bearish move has likely just begun.
So, the cryptocurrency looks set to test $8,052 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low – high) over the next few days.
However, the above scenario may not come to fruition if the rising trendline continues to cap downside in bitcoin.
Trend line chart
The ascending trendline (drawn from Jul. 16 low and Sep. 15 low) is still intact. BTC’s dip below the trendline seen earlier today was short-lived. View
The previous day’s close below $10,313 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low-high) has strengthened the bears.
However, the rebound from the trendline support seen today calls for caution.
A daily close (as per UTC) below the trendline support of $9,780 could yield a drop to $8,052 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low to high).
Bullish scenario: A daily close (as per UTC) above $11,690 would turn the tables in favor of the bulls.
Note: This is a follow-up to “3 Lies Bitcoin Skeptics Tell Themselves,” which was published earlier this month. I said I would write more on this topic if the first one did well, and nearly 75,000 views later, here I am.
It seemed like last week was the week of the bitcoin skeptic as everyone from Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman to legendary investor George Soros had negative things to say about the world’s first and most well-known cryptoasset.
Although the arguments against bitcoin keep coming, they haven’t evolved much since 2013, when the first major run-up in the price brought out all of the haters. With skepticism abound once again, I thought now would be a good time to cover three more lies bitcoin skeptics tell themselves.
Lie #1: Bitcoin Has No “Intrinsic Value”and Will Crash to Zero
One of the most common arguments against bitcoin is that the price will eventually crash to zero because there is no true, intrinsic value backing the asset.
On the other hand, the skeptics say the U.S. dollar is required for tax payments, and even gold has the underlying utility of industrial use cases. This argument is so common that well-known economist Nouriel Roubini made it in a new article that I saw while writing this one.
If the skeptics want to make this argument, then they need to come to grips with the fact that permission less digital payments could also be construed as the underlying value of bitcoin. Much like you need U.S. dollars to make tax payments in the United States, you also need bitcoin to make permission less, digital payments in an efficient manner online (gold bugs can also read this full breakdown of what they miss about bitcoin’s intrinsic value).
Chartalism is just basic appcoin ideology applied to government taxation. Both rely on friction to force hodling their token, but if that friction is technologically removed so to speak then the token value tends towards zero.
— Pierre Rochard (@pierre_rochard) January 13, 2018
Now, you could argue bitcoin is not required because there are so many altcoins that can also be used, but the issue there is that bitcoin is the most reliable, stable, secure, and long-lasting of all the cryptocurrencies, which is why people still prefer it in the face of high on-chain transaction fees (see my full explanation of why the bitcoin price has continued to rise in the face of higher transaction fees).
This point about bitcoin lacking any “intrinsic value” has been used as the reasoning behind many of the nearly 250 times people have said bitcoin is dead.
In addition to the contradiction in terms of a payments use case providing underling utility for U.S. dollars but not bitcoin, this argument sort of misses the fundamental value proposition of bitcoin in the first place — at least in terms of what drives its price. Bitcoin is a seizure-resistant digital asset with a transparent and incorruptible monetary policy, which provides the base, intrinsic (if you want to call it that) value proposition that attracts hodlers (see my full breakdown on hodlers providing a price floor for bitcoin).
Now, this is not to say the bitcoin price could not be in a short-term price bubble; that’s certainly possible. However, a price correction would not indicate that there is no value here at all.
Lie #2: Bitcoin Wastes Energy and Harms the Environment
Another common argument made by bitcoin skeptics is that decentralized transaction processing is a bad idea due to the inefficiencies involved and the headline-grabbing energy costs that go into the mining process. Skeptics often say that this energy is “wasted” and does nothing but harm the planet because, as I’ve already covered, they also think Bitcoin is a useless system anyway.
First of all, bitcoin mining is not wasteful by definition. Miners are incentivized to secure the network via rewards in the form of newly created bitcoin and transaction fees; therefore, miners only mine if people find bitcoin useful as a store of value and/or medium of exchange.
Secondly, as Coin Center’s Peter Van Valkenburgh has argued, bitcoin incentivizes the discovery and advancement of renewable forms of energy.
“The fact is that the Bitcoin protocol, right now, is providing a $200,000 bounty every 10 minutes (the bitcoin mining reward) to the person who can find the cheapest energy on the planet,” wrote Van Valkenburgh in a blog post last month.
Over the past few months, we’ve seen energy providers in Washington state and Quebec receive more requests than they can handle from cryptocurrency miners who desire low-cost electricity for their facilities. What do these two locations have in common? Cheap, clean hydroelectric power.
Lie #3: Bitcoin is a Bad Idea Because Bad People Might Use It
This third lie (or sixth lie if you started with the previous article) that bitcoin skeptics tell themselves is usually made when any new form of technology first hits the market: What happens if bad people use it?
While bitcoin is far from anonymous right now, it could eventually be made much more private. In fact, some altcoins, such as Monero and Zcash, already provide enhanced anonymity to those who seek it.
When thinking about the issue of some people using bitcoin to do bad things, it’s important to think of what the alternative option implies. If there is no anonymity allowed in online transactions, then that means the national government and/or a handful of companies will know about everyone’s online purchasing habits. At this point, it should also be remembered that the world is becoming an increasingly cashless society.
This argument that bad people will use bitcoin is similar to the arguments against encryption more generally. There is no grey area to deal with here. Privacy is binary; you either have it or you don’t.
Government officials have long contended there is a need for backdoors in encryption software so law enforcement can more easily solve cases once they have probable cause. Others say that backdoors don’t work because they cannot be sufficiently secured from hackers. The most famous version of this debate — at least in recent times — came in the form of the FBI trying to get Apple to unlock a domestic terror suspect’s phone.
Apple: If we’re forced to build a tool to hack iPhones, someone will steal it.
FBI: Nonsense.
Russia: We just published NSA’s hacking tools
— Christopher Soghoian (@csoghoian) August 17, 2016
Apple’s argument was that a backdoor in their phones would be nearly impossible to keep secure and out of the hands of hackers. Later in the same year, Apple’s point was illustrated when a set of hacking tools and exploits were stolen from the NSA.
According to Wired, the FBI was eventually able to unlock the terror suspect’s phone without Apple’s help anway.
So, in the context of bitcoin, the debate is between some centralized entity (likely a bank and/or government) knowing the financial activities of all of their users (and potentially leaking this data to hackers) and everyone having a right to financial privacy.
One last thing to consider for lie numbers two and three is that bitcoin doesn’t much care how you feel on these points. Even if bitcoin were extremely wasteful and only useful for criminals, the system is designed to be resistant to government-enforced shutdowns. We’ll have to wait for a serious crackdown or attack from a major government (if it’s not already happening) to see how well this aspect of the system holds up.
Bitcoin bulls seem to have gained an upper hand, but the cryptocurrency is still struggling to find follow-through buying today.
On Wednesday, CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price index (BPI) closed (as per UTC) 5.15 percent higher at $11,399. The positive close above $11,000 adds credence to the solid defense of the $10,000 mark seen earlier this week.
That said, the follow-through is not necessarily encouraging.
The BPI clocked a high of $11,711 at 03:59 UTC today before falling back below $11,200. As of writing, the BPI stands at $11,350. The cryptocurrency has appreciated by 3 percent in the last 24 hours, says data source OnChainFX.
Bitcoin chart – Bull reversal confirmed
The bullish doji reversal at the key support of $10,391.02 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low to 2017 high) validates the argument that BTC has built a base around $10,000 and points to a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.
The 5-day MA and 10-day MA carry a bearish bias and could limit the upside in BTC.
A bullish doji reversal occurs when a doji candle (as seen on Tuesday) is followed by a positive price action (yesterday’s 5 percent gain).
So, the short-term outlook is bullish. Still, there is merit in being cautious.
Comments on social media indicate the investor community is not convinced by previous day’s bullish price action and wants to see a sustained move above $11,500 before calling a bottom. The argument has substance says the chart below.
4 Hour Chart
The above chart (prices as per Coinbase) shows-
Bitcoin witnessed a solid recovery on Jan. 17 from the low of $9,005 on the back of strong volumes.
However, volumes have dropped in the subsequent days. This could be the reason behind bitcoin’s failure to rise above the falling trend line hurdle on Jan. 20 and Jan. 21.
BTC has had another go at the trend line resistance today, but once again volumes remain low.
Higher lows as represented by the rising trendline.
View
Bullish doji reversal was confirmed yesterday, but so far bitcoin has been unable to generate the follow throughnecessary to declare that the bottoming process is complete.
Only a high volume break above the trend line resistance on the 4-hour chart would add credence to the bullish doji reversal and open doors for a sustained move higher to $13,000 and $14,250.
On the other hand, rejection at the falling trend line followed by a high volume drop below $10,300 (rising trend line support on the 4 – hour chart) could yield re-test of last week’s low of $9,005.
That said, only a daily close (as per UTC) below $10,391.02 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2017 low to 2017 high) would revive the bearish outlook.
The price of bitcoin is down more than 10% today, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).
At press time, the cryptocurrency’s price is trading around $10,237.28, a decline of roughly 10.92% from the day’s open of $11,522.86. As it stands, the current value is near the daily low of $10,050.79, and as of time of writing the price of bitcoin is down more than $1,200 for the day.
As seen in the graph, the price held above $11,000 until roughly 13:15 UTC, after which the price dropped below that level.
The developments call to mind those seen last week – though in this case, the price hasn’t fallen below the $10,000 mark. As reported on Jan. 17, the price hit a low of $9,714.02 on the BPI.
Additional market data shows that other cryptocurrencies, including nearly all of the top-20 coins by total capitalization, are down amid the day’s trade. Among the worst performers are IOTA, which is down more than 18% in the past 24 hours, and monero, which has fallen nearly 15% in the same period, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin’s price neared the $13,000 level this weekend, climbing to as high as $12,956 during Saturday’s trading session, BPI data shows. By Sunday, the price of the cryptocurrency had fallen below $12,000.
Roller coaster track image via Shutterstock
Learn More About Bitcoin:
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Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range currently, but a breakout may lie ahead, the price charts indicate.
Prices on CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) rallied to a high of $13,000 on Saturday, but the spike was short-lived as prices fell back to $11,096 at 20:59 UTC yesterday.
As of writing, BPI stands at $11,700 – up 5.4 percent from yesterday’s low. Still, the cryptocurrency is down 1 percent on a 24-hour basis, as per data source OnChainFX.
Interestingly, some in the investor community feel the U.S. government shutdown may have influenced the rise in BTC prices over the weekend. However, if history is any guide, BTC is unlikely to rally significantly on the political standoff in Washington.
For instance, during the last standoff (Oct. 1–17, 2013), BTC appreciated by 10 percent (not a huge move by BTC’s standards), as data from CoinMarketCap shows. Further, prices were largely range-bound in the run-up to the deadlock and began rising sharply after it ended.
That possibility aside, the price chart analysis indicates scope for a rally to $15,000 and above – if the narrow range ($11,000 to $13,000) ends with an upside break.
The above chart (prices as per Coinbase) shows:
BTC rallied to $12,500 as expected and extended gains to $13,000 over the weekend, yet failed to cut through the descending trendline resistance (marked by a circle).
The failure at the trendline hurdle and a drop to sub-$12,000 levels only add credence to the downward sloping (bearish bias) 50-MA, 100-MA and 200-MA.
Bitcoin chart
Prices closed (as per UTC) above $12,500 on Saturday, signaling a short-term bottom is in place at $9,005 and potential for a rally to $15,000 levels.
However, the follow-through was weak. BTC fell back to $11,500 levels yesterday and is currently trading at $11,700 levels.
The reversal below $12,500 has neutralized the immediate bullish outlook. Meanwhile, BTC’s strong defense of 11,004.61 (100-day MA + 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement) is keeping bears the bay.
View
The bias is neutral as long as price remains stuck in the range of $11,000–$13,000. That said, risks are skewed to the upside, given the repeated rebound from near $11,000 levels.
Only a close below $11,004 following a rejection at $12,500 would open the doors for a deeper pullback to $8,000 levels.
On the other hand, a violation at $13,000 could yield rally to $15,733 levels (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from $19,891.99 to $9,005).
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